INTERVIEW: As Fiji's military regime comes under increasing international pressure, Prime Minister Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama is still promising elections in 2014.
While many agree the military ruler has a positive vision for a multi-racial Fiji, most believe he has gone about his reforms in the wrong way.
While time is ticking away, there is little evidence of public consultation on what shape the new democracy might take. And with his strong-fisted approach, Bainimarama may not have too many friends by 2014 when he is due to hand the regime over to the people.
Alex Perrottet speaks to Dr Steven Ratuva, senior lecturer in Pacific studies at the University of Auckland, and an expert on the Fiji military, regime change and electoral systems:
RATUVA: When you try to recreate, if you like, a new state system you need people’s support in order to be able to provide the thinking, to provide the sentiments to participate in the process, to make sure it becomes legitimate. But what he is doing is imposing it and using coercion as a means by which to achieve what he wants to do and by doing that he steps on a lot of people’s toes.
PERROTTET: For years now Commodore Bainimarama has said he is changing Fiji for the better, but time is running out on his 2014 election deadline. Sources from within Fiji say he is alienating the very people that could be helping him build that democracy. Steven where do you think he has gone wrong?
RATUVA: Instead of co-opting them, he is basically crushing them. In politics you don’t crush someone and get away with it. They will come back at you at some point.
PERROTTET: What about the chiefs? After the coup, he dissolved the Great Council of Chiefs. Does he have any of them on side?
RATUVA: He is very much at loggerheads with his own chiefs. They don’t like him and he doesn’t like them. They may have the chiefly mana but he has the guns.
PERROTTET: WE have recently seen former senior army officers such as Pita Driti and Ratu Tevita Mara sidelined for alleged sedition. How does he keep the support of the army while he has control of the Parliament?
RATUVA: In terms of the rank and file, he basically has control over them, because these are the guys with guns. He gives them pay rises, gives them lots of things in terms of their welfare, so ordinary soldiers really like him for doing all those things. Although they disagree with him politically, in terms of bread and butter issues, they say: ‘Well, this guy is feeding us’. So he plays that game pretty well.
PERROTTET: So there’s no chance of a mutiny from within the army?
RATUVA: The two guys who are most likely to do it are now sidelined. He has his own men in the system, in the country, observing and spying on the others and getting feedback. So even the senior officers are scared to talk to other senior officers, like: ‘What do you think of this idiot?’ Because you are not sure who you trust. There is a lot of distrust among them and a lot of suspicion as well.
PERROTTET: So are elections going to happen at all? What do you think?
RATUVA: Well, that is an assumption. Hopefully they will.
PERROTTET: Say they do hold elections in 2014, what then happens to Bainimarama?
RATUVA: He’s thinking of his exit strategy, what does he do afterwards if the election takes place? If he loses the election, he’ll be in big trouble. And then if he wins the election, he has to make sure that he has somebody in the military who won’t do to him what he did to the previous prime minister.
PERROTTET: So win or lose those elections, do you think he will be pursued legally by the system he puts in place?
RATUVA: I’m absolutely certain that after the election, even if he wins, there will be lots of court cases against him in relation to sedition charges and treason. So he needs a very good lawyer.
Alex Perrottet
