OPINION: DUNEDIN, NZ (Otago Daily Times/Pacific Media Watch): Another chapter in the sorry saga of modern Fiji appears to be in the writing, and it is far too soon to predict how it will end. It is, however, reasonable to suppose that military coup was not behind the latest events - one intended to overthrow the incumbent military dictator, Vorege Bainimarama.
Rather, the issues appear to be mostly personal, linked to allegations of corruption and sexual impropriety, and possibly triggered by a fracturing of the relationship between Mr Bainimarama and some of his closest former supporters.
Arrests were made some weeks ago, one of them being a former senior military commander, Lieutenant-colonel Ratu Tevita Uluilakeba Mara, who was charged with sedition and granted bail. However, Ratu Mara is now in Tonga, having fled Fiji ostensibly by fishing launch and later being transported to Tonga by a vessel of that country's navy.
Fiji has now sought to extradite Ratu Mara from Tonga. Ratu Mara is the youngest son of Fiji's founding prime minister, Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara, who was removed from office in George Speight's coup in 2000. Relations between the two island states are sensitive at present, especially over "ownership" of the Minerva Reef (which lies between them and which is said to have potential mineral resources), and these have been complicated by strong filial ties between Tonga's King George and Ratu Mara.
Tonga is insisting the application be treated according to its proper procedures, one of which requires the applicant's case to be argued in its courts. That could prove highly embarrassing to Fiji, because an accused is guaranteed the right of reply.
So far, Ratu Mara has not been slow to express his opinion of his former commander and the regime he leads. In recent broadcasts and statements, he has described Mr Bainimarama as behaving like a dictator, weakened by ill health, morally and intellectually bankrupt, and no more than a "hand-puppet" to the regime's Attorney-general, Aiyaz Khaiyum, who was a megalomaniac who should be removed from office.
Late last year Ratu Mara and an associate were ordered to take leave while allegations of sexual impropriety were investigated. However, in the murky business of what is truth in Fiji today, it has also been suggested the two men had asked the President of Fiji to ask Mr Bainimarama to step down. The claims of sexual impropriety and others of corruption were, they said, merely trumped up.
When the men were arrested they were charged not with criminal offences but with the far more serious crime of uttering seditious comments. Based on what is known so far, this appears to be another example of Mr Bainimarama silencing or attempting to silence a critic, who in this case is one with the highest caste status - an important matter in Fiji - and a former ally who supported his 2006 coup. Ratu Mara also accused Mr Bainimarama of failing to heed the advice being offered by members of the ruling military council to reduce or limit media censorship and dissent.
Most external interest in this affair will be in whether it triggers an attempt to overthrow Mr Bainimarama. Popular opinion in Fiji is said to have been growing against him and his regime, with little progress in sight of electoral reforms - now promised for "next year" - or even of improvements in the living conditions for most Fijians.
Certainly, it would appear there is no way back to Fiji for Ratu Mara unless he is in chains as a bail absconder or there is regime change in Fiji. He has declared from Tonga that he is prepared to answer to the people of Fiji once the Bainimarama government has been "eradicated". But Ratu Mara is unlikely to be able to mount a successful attempt to overthrow Mr Bainimarama while in exile.
Ratu Mara also has family links with those in power in Fiji - his sister is married to the president and is a former Cabinet member but is thought now to have little support from within the military.
Of more immediate concern will be the effect on external relations between Fiji and Tonga and within the wider South Pacific community, which includes New Zealand and Australia. New Zealand is officially staying well out of sight but at diplomatic level is bound to have expressed a conciliatory view to both Fiji and Tonga, while perhaps reminding Fiji of the continuing sanctions Australia and New Zealand have imposed on that country and the reasons for them.
Pacific Media Watch
